Friday, December 1, 2006

Sold Aug 30 Call for AKAM

Akamai (AKAM)

I've sold a covered call on 100 shares of AKAM for $90

I plan to hold on AKAM but $30 is almost a 30% increase in price and I don't think that increase is likely within the next 7 months.
If AKAM does increase to reach 30 and the call is exercised, I'll still have some shares left and would probably buy some more on the way up to 30.

I am evaluating the option of writing covered calls on PDLI as well

Options

Interestingly enough, about 30 minutes after my first ever option transaction (a conservative sell of out of the money Aug 30 call on AKAM for less than a hundred dollars), the Motley Fool is running an article on Options.



In that article, two authors explore a pro and a con view on options.

It's pretty basic and I believe there is actually a typo in the bullish case (buy Call and sell Put, where the author means buy call and seel call) but definitely worth reading.

I believe the Fool.com is a good website for stock ideas, their newsletters have good results, but overall the papers are superficial and they're trying really hard to sell their stuff. Half of the article are just apetizers bragging about former top performers that end up with ...Suscribe to our -whatever- Newsletter to read other other stock picks

Wednesday, October 4, 2006

Zacks Performance Tracking Halt

I've been tracking the "bull of the day" picks at www.zacks.com for 6+ months and 150 stocks, and I consider the current pool of 150 picks to be enough of a database to work on.
Therefore I am halting the long and time consuming process of collecting data on the picks and will only continue to upgrade the +1week, +1month, +3months and +6 months columns of the spreadsheet until everyone of the 150 stocks has data for 6 months (the time frame given by Zacks to reach the price objective)

So far it's been fairly average, with a handful of great picks, some miserable ones and a bunch of average (read performing like the index), but some of their analysts are sticking out.

I'll crunch some numbers and post the file soon, but I'm skeptical that following the advices of professionals yield wowing results. If you do your homework you should be able to beat the index by yourself and should not need someone to tell you what to buy.

Sunday, October 1, 2006

Sold some ERTS @ $55.65, looking for Jun calls elsewhere

Electronic Arts (ERTS)

I lightened up on ERTS today, sold 1/3 of my position to get some money off the table and off that sideway trading stock.

SOLD ERTS @ $55.65

I'm losing around 5% on that trade, but I just don't like ERTS that much anymore.
On the other hand the videogame market is about to boom and I don't want to miss the train, so I'm keeping some until I find out a better play or I fall back in love with the stock.

Besides, I'm looking to buy several June Calls for a couple of stocks, I do want to trade options that I expect to exercise, so I'm looking for comapnies with a sound base.

In my shortlist : GOOG, PCU, CKCM, ENG, SPIL, MRVL (down 7% today but it should be back in the spring) or maybe my left apart from the Xmas buying spree CRM, PRAA, ADEX, JOYG

Friday, June 2, 2006

Looking at new Buys (CRM, PRAA, GILD, TIBX)

AAPL

Before thinking about long positions, I am considering shorting (via buying some puts) some AAPL, I've been bearish on the stock for some time (see earlier posts) and don't see it coming up with anything as big as the Ipod for some time.

Recently AAPL has been trending lower and a quick look at the chart above doesn't look make you think of a beloved and hyped company. The MACD is dipping below 0 and the RSI is way off.

Other than that, I'm keen on buying a new position (since my WDC Aug 20 is likely to make me some money) into a hot stock. I'm thinking on-demand with CRM (salesforce.com), I'm thinking RFID with TIBX (Tibco), I'm thinking consumer paying off their credit card debt with PRAA (Portfolio Recovery Associates) and I'm fancying a midcap biotech that could have the kind of year PDLI had me in 2005 with GILD (Gilead Sciences).

At any rate I probably will implement a long position through options rather than stocks as I don't want to expand my account size too much, should these trade prove right I'll free up some cash to exercise and sell, or I'll just sell for higher premiums.

Among the technology that are going to be tremendous in the next 5 years I expect RFID (CKCM might actually be a good play too besides TIBX), RSS (although I don't really know how it can generate revenue, it should be huge soon), and nanotech (I put TINY off the side for too long and it grew almost 50 behind my back, but I'm still considering getting into it, or on a less pure play MMM)

Looking back at my sales (BOT, URBN, ENCY, ERTS)

BOT is up a little over 5% since I sold it, it would still be a loss from my buy point and I don't see it going past $120 anytime soon

ENCY is up more than $2 (more than 20%) since I got out on a 30% dip (after a competitor's drug, Actelion, got good news ahead of ENCY) and since the stock seems very resilient, I am tempted to get back into it with summer expriring options and play a wait and see game with the FDA approval supposedly coming this spring for the respiratory drug from Encysive.

ERTS is down a couple points since I shed one third of my position. I expect 2006 to be flat or so, but ERTS should be a powerhouse when the transition to new console is fully done.

URBN has been bouncing up and down since I sold it, as of today it's higher that my selling price but lower than my initial Buy, this stock got me weary of retail stocks and I still avoid them like the plague

Monday, May 1, 2006

Time to shed some ERTS ?

Electronics Arts have been a disapointment so far in my portfolio, Madden is the best selling football game ever, the stock doesn't tick, jamdat is bought for more exposure on the growing portable market, nothing happens. Recently it's been trending up (despite all technical indicators down, see below) a bit, and my loss on it is reduced to roughly 5%. I believe ERTS will continue to lead the videogame market for eternity, but it looks like that fact is already discounted into the price of the shares, no good news is good enough.

On the other hand the market for videogames is in a transition form generation 2 to generation 3 consoles. Gamers are buying new systems with a huge price tag so they don't have money for games yet, or they're saving up for the PS3 and still don't spend.

Whatever it is that is happening, the stock isn't anywhere near where I expect it to be. I will probably hold on until the next or next next quarter, but I might shed 30% of my position to free up some cash, maybe a good bet on video game would be Gamestop (GME)?

On the technical side, the MACD just crossed over, but as it happens below 0 the move shouldn't be that huge, I hope it'll be big enough to shed at a profit, but the long term technicals are so bad that it will take great news and a bit of luck to be on the long winning side.

From a long term perspective, I am confident that ERTS is great company and possibly great stock, but I am trying to maximise mid term profits and could certainly find another stock with similar if not higher odds of making me some dollars.

Also, there is a bit of risk in the fact that EA's games are mostly franchise and repeats, and somehow at some point you can't expect NBA street 7, NFL street 6, NBA live 2011, The sims 5, and NHL 24 to create a "growth" image around the company.

Monday, January 2, 2006

Zacks "Bull of the day" Performance Report 3

I digged into the zacks archives and tracked the performance of the "Bull of the day" for the past months.

I love to look at that file and it's very interesting to see how certain analysts fare at stock picking.

You should be able to download the file here : Reco.xls otherwise email me and I'll gladly send the xls file to you

So far the list goes includes the following stocks :

PTR TEX LLTC CHK ZRAN WMB JOYG WSSI JOE HW AGIX PKTR EOG TSO ECA WHQ XOMA RNVS BNI TXCO CHK SAP XLNX PLXS AMLN ATHR AHR DNR CTRX BRP KOMG CUTR YHOO APH VRSN ORB EBAY JOE KOMG DO NFX KYPH HRS NTES MAA TRMM RACK DB NVDA CTRX BAY GME DF CRM UPL INFY EBAY MFC MXIM PALM GILD
CYMI MDRX AMGN SPIL SPG PRU CVTX BHI NSM LEXG TRID KIM RACK SCSS TXU CEO
COGN ACAD JOYG AGIX VIP BF TLM VRSN PCU FMX APH IVAC ALTR CAI NNDS WAG DVAX MOT EBAY CRM NETC SAP LLY CX BGC