Friday, June 2, 2006

Looking at new Buys (CRM, PRAA, GILD, TIBX)


Before thinking about long positions, I am considering shorting (via buying some puts) some AAPL, I've been bearish on the stock for some time (see earlier posts) and don't see it coming up with anything as big as the Ipod for some time.

Recently AAPL has been trending lower and a quick look at the chart above doesn't look make you think of a beloved and hyped company. The MACD is dipping below 0 and the RSI is way off.

Other than that, I'm keen on buying a new position (since my WDC Aug 20 is likely to make me some money) into a hot stock. I'm thinking on-demand with CRM (, I'm thinking RFID with TIBX (Tibco), I'm thinking consumer paying off their credit card debt with PRAA (Portfolio Recovery Associates) and I'm fancying a midcap biotech that could have the kind of year PDLI had me in 2005 with GILD (Gilead Sciences).

At any rate I probably will implement a long position through options rather than stocks as I don't want to expand my account size too much, should these trade prove right I'll free up some cash to exercise and sell, or I'll just sell for higher premiums.

Among the technology that are going to be tremendous in the next 5 years I expect RFID (CKCM might actually be a good play too besides TIBX), RSS (although I don't really know how it can generate revenue, it should be huge soon), and nanotech (I put TINY off the side for too long and it grew almost 50 behind my back, but I'm still considering getting into it, or on a less pure play MMM)

Looking back at my sales (BOT, URBN, ENCY, ERTS)

BOT is up a little over 5% since I sold it, it would still be a loss from my buy point and I don't see it going past $120 anytime soon

ENCY is up more than $2 (more than 20%) since I got out on a 30% dip (after a competitor's drug, Actelion, got good news ahead of ENCY) and since the stock seems very resilient, I am tempted to get back into it with summer expriring options and play a wait and see game with the FDA approval supposedly coming this spring for the respiratory drug from Encysive.

ERTS is down a couple points since I shed one third of my position. I expect 2006 to be flat or so, but ERTS should be a powerhouse when the transition to new console is fully done.

URBN has been bouncing up and down since I sold it, as of today it's higher that my selling price but lower than my initial Buy, this stock got me weary of retail stocks and I still avoid them like the plague