Friday, October 19, 2007

Random Market Thoughts

Here’s another asset class where you really don’t need a neural net to tell you the trend is up. All you need is an understanding on how governmental policy drives currency depreciation.

It’s old news now but the EURUSD currency pair traded above $1.43 for the first time (it’s at $1.4280 right now) yesterday. Weak earnings from Bank of America yesterday drove speculation that the Fed would cut interest rates one more time at their Oct 31st meeting.

A weak economic recovery (IMHO), massive deficits, an unpopular war, a misgiuded administration, and a former sellout of a Federal Reserve Chairman, have all contributed to a bleak outlook for the dollar. Sure we’ll have short term fluctuation’s where the USD might strengthen but in the longterm I would remain long the Euro and short the Dollar.

How can a previously low rate of 5.25% (now 4.75%) derail this fantastic economic expansion we are having?

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